Politics of Check and mate

There is a very famous teaching example in Management classes. It is about a frog and the water. When a frog is thrown into a pot of boiling water, it is shocked for few moments and then jumps out from the boiling pot. The frog gets scaled but it survives. Now take the second scenario. Another frog is put in a pot-filled with normal water. After putting the frog in the pot, start the water to boil gradually. The frog will get accustomed to higher and higher temperature. First, the frog will sink into unconsciousness and then gradually boil to death but will never jump out of the pot.

We, the people of Bihar are like the second frog who are getting accustomed to worse and worst situation in the state but will never jump out of it. If you remember the first Lalu tenure during 1990s, it was like throwing a frog in the boiling water. At that time, many Bihar residents left the state and shifted to Delhi or elsewhere. Now, this Grand alliance of Lalu-Nitish Kumar is not like a boiling water but the pot is gradually made to boil. It could be understood what fate the frog will meet.

The release of LaluYadav’s protege and accused of murder, kidnapping and many heinous crime and Ex-Member of Parliament Shahabuddin poses serious question about ‘sushashan’ of Nitish Kumar. Questions are being asked about what we have made of our democracy? The way Lalu Yadav has started dominating Bihar politics, it is also being said that Nitish Kumar is becoming what Manhoman Singh was to UPA. But before reaching to any conclusion, we have to minutely analyze political equations of Bihar today.

The dominance of Lalu and its silent counter by Nitish Kumar raised serious questions about the future of this grand alliance. Nitish Kumar came up with very stringent law for total ban on liquor sale. It is widely propagated that Nitish Kumar has fulfilled the election promise made to the half population of Bihar. But some say that it is targeted towards Lalu Yadav. It is also said that most of the businessman in liquor trade are supporters of Lalu Yadav. So, the people who are keeping close tab on Bihar politics suggests that by curbing the liquor sale, Nitish Kumar tried to weaken the support base of his ‘Big brother’. Sensing this, LaluYadav opened his gambit on political chess board. First, some of his party MLA opposed the stringent prohibition law but that move could not get any fruitful result. So, it seems that Laludecided to move back to its support base of Yadav and Muslims, i.e. the MY Combination.

First, he showed his clout against the Upper Caste don Anant Singh and got him arrested allegedly by putting pressure on the government of that time. Anant Singh was accused of murder of a Yadav. At that time much noise was made against Lalu’s move. Lalu alleged those who opposed his move by saying that they had some secret agenda, he or she is advocating the causes of Upper caste persons, they are ganged up against the downtrodden of the society etc.

Now, it is alleged by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders of Bihar that Shahbuddinhas been released from jail due to pressure of RJD chief. It is also alleged that under pressure from RJD supremo, Bihar government did not hire some good advocates who oppose the Shahabuddin bail plea in Patna High Court. After release from jail, Shahabuddin showered praise on Lalu Yadav and when asked about Nitish kumar, he vehemently and vociferously stated that he is not his leader. He went a step ahead andsaid that Nitish Kumar is Chief Minister of Bihar due to some circumstances prevailing at the time of assembly election. Shahabuddin clearly stated that Laluis his leader and will remain so.

It is also a fact that when grand alliance came to power under Nitish Kumar-Lalu Yadav combine, crime rate saw an upward movement. RJD MLA Rajballabh Yadav was arrested on the charges of raping a minor girl. During investigation of some more crimes, many Yadav leaders or criminals got arrested and still behind bars.Nitish Kumar did not come to defend them, rather the police cracked heavily on the criminals. LaluYadav’s son and Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar Tejaswi Yadav was left to defend Bihar government over allegation of crime surge in the state. The message went to Yadav community that Nitish is calling the shots in the government and Lalu can’t defend his fellow casteman, who are traditionally the solid vote bank of Lalu. After sensing this, Lalu started exerting himself on the functioning of Bihar Government.

When the grand alliance won the Bihar Election, Lalu declared that Nitish will look after Bihar and he will take on the growing menace of RSS and BJP in the country. But what happened in Bihar is just opposite. Nitish Kumar is very often seen touring other states and Lalu most of the time stayed in Bihar. So, the game of check and mate is in full swing in Bihar Politics. Lalu has started giving signal to his MY vote bank that he is not weak and able to take care of them. Many political pundits are of the opinion that Nitish Kumar is not like Manmohan Singh and have the political acumen to mould the situation as he wishes.Nitish is such a politician who could not compromise on his image.Political grapevine doing the rounds in Bihar and in Lutyens power corridor is that Nitish is exploring the possibility of again joining hands with BJP. The recent  bonhomie in the meeting of Nitish and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seen in this light. It is very often said about cricket and Politics that both are the games of uncertainty and anything can happen at any moment. So, let’s keep the finger crossed for Bihar.

( Writer is a Senior TV Journalist) 

The new Poster Boy of Congress

Social Media is abuzz about a man called Prashant Kishore. When the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under the leadership of Narendra Modi got the historic mandate in Lok Sabha election, Prashant Kishore was given the title of master strategist. At that point of time, political pundits called him Chanakya of Narendra Modi. But, things went wrong after the victory and Narendra Modi and Prashant Kishore parted ways. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar saw an opportunity and immediately contacted Prashant Kishore and signed him for the forthcoming Bihar assembly election. 

Now, the historic win of Mahagathbandhan in Bihar has made Prashant Kishore a most sought after commodity in Politics. And the rule of market is that each and every investor wants to invest in that commodity. Those large investors also invest in that commodity to get profit. Same is the case in Politics. Now, every political party wants to invest in that commodity named ‘Prashant Kishore’.

Nowadays, there is much noise on Nationalism and Sedition. Each and every political party is preaching Nationalism as per their convenience. In this scenario of fierce political debate, Congress has invested in Prashant Kishore. Congress has assigned him Punjab, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh. But, in the political corridor, speculation is rife that Prashant Kishore will be signed till 2019 Lok sabha election.  This will depend on the results of Punjab, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh. Those who knows Congress culture think that it’s very difficult for Prashant Kishore to play a long innings with the party.  

Prashant Kishore has started making strategy for Congress in Uttar Pradesh assembly election slated in first half of 2017. Prashant has already met senior leaders of Congress and is planning to meet the district level leaders of party in the coming days. Political Pundits are underlining this as a major political coup by Congress. But this is the biggest challenge for Kishore because when he was part of the Modi campaign. Scam after scam and the policy paralysis made UPA Govt hated by many. Anti incumbency was clear. Prashant Kishore turned the table in favour of Modi by projecting him as leader with a strong will. The result is known to everybody.

When Prashant came to Nistish camp, he played a masterstroke. It is widely believed that he was the person who made Nitish agree to have an alliance with Lalu Yadav’s RJD. It was Prashant Kishore who made Nitish agree to shun more than 25 sitting seats in favour of RJD. It was considered the most accurate political move keeping in mind the cast equation of the state. PK placed Lalu-Nitish duo against Narendra Modi. Prashant Kishore Placed Nitish kumar as Bihari Pride. Bihari Vs Bahri paid the dividend.

But the assignment of Uttar Pradesh is entirely different from the last two assignment of this celebrity pollster. Congress in Uttar Pradesh in its worst phase. When the party won 21 LS seats in Uttar Pradesh, it was said that Rahul Gandhi revived the party. At that time Congress got almost 18 percent vote share. But Congress fared very badly in assembly and parliamentary elections. Rahul Gandhi worked very hard and spent many days and night is 2012 assembly election but Congress mustered only 12 percent vote share.

After two years, came the Parliamentary election and vote share of congress furtherr gone down to seven and half percent.  Only Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi were able to won the election from Uttar Pradesh. This was the worst ever performance of congress party in Uttar Pradesh. Even in the election held after emergency, Congress got twenty five percent vote without winning a single seat. After 2014 election, the morale of congress workers at its lowest ebb.

Now, Congress has given the baton to Prashant Kishore for its revival and strengthening. After Prashant Kishore took over the responsibility it was reported in media that Priyanka Gandhi may be the face of Congress in Uttar Pradesh. But till now this is not more than a political gossip. The strategists of Congress felt that since Prashant Kishore has worked with Narendra Modi for long time, so he could make out the weak point of Prime Minister and could be successful in countering him. Now, if you see the history of Congress and its mass leaders, it’s very hard to digest that now the grand old party is banking on a pollster to revive its fortune in a state. Congress was known for the mass leaders who attract voters. Those mass leaders were backbone of the but now the party is lacking those type of leaders. There are historic reasons for this.

It is a fact that Prashant Kishore has written a success story with Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar but at the same time it is also felt that for writing a success story, Prashant Kishore needs a Modi or a Nitish. In UP, congress has no Modi or no Nitish Kumar, although Prashnat Kishore has started the search of Modi or Nitish like leader in congress. It will be very interesting to see the strategy of Prashant Kishore in Uttar Pradesh for 2017 assembly election, because it is widely believed that Congress leaders are not in favor of any alliance either with Mayawati or Mulayam Singh Yadav.